2019年生活费用增长

市场崩盘已经10年了。在2009年的这个时候,我们观察到大量取消抵押品赎回权,裁员和利率大幅下降。企业被迫申请破产,许多人在上次经济衰退期间失去了工作。从那时起,房地产市场一直在复苏和增长。2019年1月,美国雇主向市场增加了304,00个工作岗位 [1]。这是工作人数增加的连续100个月。经济似乎表现良好。人们可能想知道2019年的生活成本会增加多少?

 

通货膨胀率

以下是2008年1月至2018年12月(1982-84 = 100)[2]美国城市平均所有项目的CPI,消费者价格指数图表。正如你所看到的,它是稳步上升的趋势。2017年12月至2018年12月的CPI同比增长率为1.91%。

CPI所有项目在美国城市平均水平,所有城市消费者,未经季节性调整[2]Cost Of Living Increase 2019

 

 

12月CPI同比增长[2]

CPI
同比增长
CPI
同比增长
08 – 09 2.72% 13 – 14 0.76%
09 – 10 1.50% 14 – 15 0.73%
10 – 11 2.96% 15 – 16 2.07%
11 – 12 1.74% 16 – 17 2.11%
12 – 13 1.50% 17 – 18 1.91%
13 – 14 0.76% Avg. 1.80%

 

从整体上看这些数据,2019年的生活成本增长预计会在1.5%到2%左右的范围内增长。需要记住的一点是,美联储联邦公开市场委员会(联邦公开市场委员会)于1月30日宣布,下一届加息将会很容易。目前的联邦基金利率介于2.25%和2.5%之间。美联储可能会维持下一季度的当前汇率,并可能持有今年剩余时间。它还宣布预计美国经济将会增长,但不会像2018年那样快速增长 [4]。这可以作为2019年生活费用增长的一些指标。

 

物品的通货膨胀率

让我们来看看过去10年所选项目的通货膨胀率。下图是食品,住房,取暖燃料和电力的CPI增长情况。

CPI增长2008年1月至2018年12月食品和住房[2]

 

 

除了加热燃料,它每年逐渐增加1%至4%。

12月10年食品和住房CPI同比增长[2]

十二月 食品与饮料 庇护 燃料油和其他燃料 电力
08 – 09 -0.36% 0.31% 2.51% -0.51%
09 -10 1.48% 0.45% 13.47% 0.71%
10 – 11 4.45% 1.91% 14.25% 2.15%
11 – 12 1.77% 2.20% -1.45% -0.47%
12 – 13 1.10% 2.54% 2.89% 3.21%
13 – 14 3.27% 2.90% -13.74% 3.15%
14 – 15 0.77% 3.21% -23.24% -1.22%
15 – 16 -0.13% 3.62% 7.91% 0.67%
16 – 17 1.57% 3.20% 12.61% 2.59%
17 – 18 1.59% 3.20% 1.33% 1.07%
Avg. 1.55% 2.35% 1.65% 1.14%

 

食物与饮料

食品价格的成本受天气,生产供应,燃料/原油价格以及其他一些因素的影响。年均增长1.55%(12月同比)。EIA估计2019年原油价格预计将徘徊在50美元至60美元左右[5]。这是非常微妙的范围。由于运输成本受燃料成本的影响很大,因此原油价格有利于2019年全年的食品运输。

 

住房

房价在过去几年呈现稳健增长。自2014年以来,12月至12月的年增长率超过3%。有一点值得注意的是,待售房屋销售指数正在下降[6],但房屋销售价格正在稳步增长 [7]。这种趋势没有像2008年那样出现大幅放缓的迹象。如果您想知道您所在城市的租金增长情况,请点击此处  了解更多信息。租赁物业的租金增长因地区而异。100个都市区的同比增长幅度介于-1.2%至4.0%之间根据公寓列表[8]。中位数为1.4%,平均值为1.46%。预计2019年租金上涨1-2.5%左右。但同样,这取决于您居住的地方,请参考您的都市区。

 

其他项目

住房和食品成本的变化对2019年生活费用增长的影响最大。下图显示了一些主要的费用类别。正如你所看到的,大学学费是冠军,没有减速的迹象。它在过去10年中增长了50%。亚军是医疗费和儿童保育费。10年增长率超过30%。车辆和服装几乎为零或略高于零。燃料,电器和家具呈下降趋势。天然气成本与原油价格直接相关,考虑到原油价格走势,这是可以理解的趋势。

CPI增长2008年1月至2018年12月所选项目[2]

 

特选项目12月10年同比CPI增长[2]

十二月 服饰 医疗保健 大学学杂费 幼儿园和托儿所
08 – 09 1.95% 3.37% 5.96% 2.26%
09 -10 -1.08% 3.28% 4.06% 3.73%
10 – 11 4.57% 3.49% 6.02% 2.21%
11 – 12 1.77% 3.21% 4.03% 2.67%
12 – 13 0.64% 2.01% 3.90% 2.16%
13 – 14 -1.99% 2.96% 3.43% 2.24%
14 – 15 -0.93% 2.58% 3.53% 4.06%
15 – 16 -0.13% 4.07% 2.33% 2.88%
16 – 17 -1.65% 1.78% 2.10% 1.75%
17 – 18 -0.07% 2.01% 2.75% 1.91%
Avg. 0.31% 2.88% 3.81% 2.59%

 

十二月 家具和床上用品 家电 新旧机动车 发动机燃料
08 – 09 0.00% -2.63% 5.48% 50.69%
09 -10 -4.53% -4.06% 0.65% 13.93%
10 – 11 1.98% 1.46% 2.83% 10.34%
11 – 12 -0.37% 1.87% -0.05% 1.74%
12 – 13 -2.35% -3.80% 0.70% -1.03%
13 – 14 -1.61% -5.21% -0.89% -20.84%
14 – 15 -0.78% -3.42% 0.14% -19.86%
15 – 16 -2.85% -4.42% -1.03% 9.08%
16 – 17 -0.68% -1.03% -0.33% 10.74%
17 – 18 1.68% 4.74% 0.83% -1.90%
Avg. -0.95% -1.65% 0.83% 5.29%

 

使用上述数据预测2019年的生活成本增长。明智地计划您的支出。

 


 

参考

1.美国劳工统计局
数据库,主题
数据表和计算器摘录于:2019年2月1日(下午5:25:56)
当前就业统计调查的就业,工时和收入(国家)

2.美国劳工统计局
数据库,主题表和计算器
CPI-所有城市消费者(当前系列)
数据提取日期:2019年2月1日
美国城市平均所有项目,所有城市消费者,未经季节性调整

3. 联邦公开市场委员会联邦公开市场委员会
2019年FOMC会议1月29日至30日
FOMC会议声明

4. 联邦公开市场联邦公开市场委员会
2019年联邦公开市场委员会会议1月29日至30日
鲍威尔主席新闻发布会成绩单2019年1月30日

5.美国能源信息署
短期能源展望
发布日期:2019年1月15日
原油价格

6.全国房地产经纪人协会
待售房屋销售2019年1月30日

7.联邦住房金融局
美国房价指数报告 – 2018年11月

8.公寓清单
2019年2月公寓列表国家租金报告

 

Cost Of Living Increase in 2019

It’s been 10 years since the crash of market.  This time of the year in 2009, we observed a massive number of foreclosures, layoffs, and steep drop of interest rate.  Businesses are forced to file bankruptcy, many people lost their jobs during the last recession.  Since then, the housing market has been recovering and growing again.  In January 2019, the U.S. employers added 304,00 jobs to the market [1].  That’s 100 consecutive-month that the number of job is increased.  The economy is seemingly doing well.  The people may wonder what is the cost of living increase in 2019?

 

Inflation Rate

The following is a chart of CPI, consumer price index, for all items in U.S. city average between January 2008 and December 2018 (1982-84=100) [2].  As you can see, it is steady upward trend.  The year-over-year CPI growth from December 2017 to December 2018 is 1.91%.

CPI all items in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted [2]Cost Of Living Increase 2019

 

 

December year-over-year CPI growth [2]

Year CPI Growth
Y-o-Y
Year CPI Growth
Y-o-Y
08 – 09 2.72% 13 – 14 0.76%
09 – 10 1.50% 14 – 15 0.73%
10 – 11 2.96% 15 – 16 2.07%
11 – 12 1.74% 16 – 17 2.11%
12 – 13 1.50% 17 – 18 1.91%
13 – 14 0.76% Avg. 1.80%

 

By looking at these data, overall, The cost of living increase in 2019 is expected grow somewhere 1.5% to 2% range.  One thing you need to keep in mind is that the Federal Reserve FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) announced on January 30th that it is going to take easy on the rate hike for the next term.  The current federal funds rate are between 2.25 percent and 2.5 percent.  The Federal Reserve will be likely to hold the current rate for the next quarter and possibly for the rest of the year.  It also announced that the U.S. economy is expected to grow but not as rapid as the one in 2018 [4].  This can be some metric for the cost of living increase in 2019.

 

Inflation Rate by Item

Let’s look at the inflation rate of past 10 years for selected items.  The following graphs is the CPI growth for food, housing, heating fuel, and electricity.

CPI Growth January 2008 to December 2018 Food & Housing [2]

 

 

Other than heating fuel, the it’s a gradual increase of somewhere between 1% to 4% annually.

10-Year December Year-over-Year CPI growth for Food & Housing [2]

Dec y-o-y food & beverage shelter fuel oil and other fuels electricity
08 – 09 -0.36% 0.31% 2.51% -0.51%
09 -10 1.48% 0.45% 13.47% 0.71%
10 – 11 4.45% 1.91% 14.25% 2.15%
11 – 12 1.77% 2.20% -1.45% -0.47%
12 – 13 1.10% 2.54% 2.89% 3.21%
13 – 14 3.27% 2.90% -13.74% 3.15%
14 – 15 0.77% 3.21% -23.24% -1.22%
15 – 16 -0.13% 3.62% 7.91% 0.67%
16 – 17 1.57% 3.20% 12.61% 2.59%
17 – 18 1.59% 3.20% 1.33% 1.07%
Avg. 1.55% 2.35% 1.65% 1.14%

 

Food and Beverage

The cost of food price is affected by weather, production supply, price of fuel / crude oil, and some other factors.  The average annual growth of 1.55% (December year-over-year).  The EIA estimates that the crude oil price is expected to hover somewhere around $50 to $60 for 2019 [5].  It’s pretty subtle range.  Since the transportation cost is greatly influenced by the cost of fuel, this crude oil price is favorable for the food transportation throughout the year 2019.

 

Housing

The housing price is showing solid growth past few years.  The December to December annual growth is above 3% Since 2014.  One thing stands out is that the pending home sales index is declining [6] but the home sales price is on the steady growth [7].  This trend doesn’t show a sign of drastic slow down like the one in 2008.  If you wonder about the rent growth of your city, click here to find out more.  The rent growth of rental property varies based on the region.  The the year-over-year growth range of 100 metro areas is between -1.2% to 4.0% according to Apartment List [8].  The median is 1.4% and the mean is 1.46%.  Expect around 1 – 2.5% rent hike for 2019.  But again, it really depends on where you live, please refer your metro area.

 

Other Items

The change of housing and food costs influence the most for the cost of living increase in 2019.  The following chart shows some of major categories of expenses.  As you can see, the college tuition is the champion and no sign of slow down.  It’s 50% growth in past 10 years.  The runner up is medical expenses and childcare costs.  The 10-year-growth is more than 30%.  The vehicles and apparels are almost zero or slightly above zero.  The fuel, appliances, and furniture, are downward trend.  The cost of gas is directly correlated to the price of crude oil and it’s understandable trend considering about the trend of crude oil price.

CPI Growth January 2008 to December 2018 Selected Items [2]

 

10 Year December Year-over-Year CPI growth for Selected Items [2]

Dec y-o-y apparel medical care college tuition and fees child care and nursery school
08 – 09 1.95% 3.37% 5.96% 2.26%
09 -10 -1.08% 3.28% 4.06% 3.73%
10 – 11 4.57% 3.49% 6.02% 2.21%
11 – 12 1.77% 3.21% 4.03% 2.67%
12 – 13 0.64% 2.01% 3.90% 2.16%
13 – 14 -1.99% 2.96% 3.43% 2.24%
14 – 15 -0.93% 2.58% 3.53% 4.06%
15 – 16 -0.13% 4.07% 2.33% 2.88%
16 – 17 -1.65% 1.78% 2.10% 1.75%
17 – 18 -0.07% 2.01% 2.75% 1.91%
Avg. 0.31% 2.88% 3.81% 2.59%

 

Dec y-o-y furniture and bedding appliances new and used motor vehicles motor fuel
08 – 09 0.00% -2.63% 5.48% 50.69%
09 -10 -4.53% -4.06% 0.65% 13.93%
10 – 11 1.98% 1.46% 2.83% 10.34%
11 – 12 -0.37% 1.87% -0.05% 1.74%
12 – 13 -2.35% -3.80% 0.70% -1.03%
13 – 14 -1.61% -5.21% -0.89% -20.84%
14 – 15 -0.78% -3.42% 0.14% -19.86%
15 – 16 -2.85% -4.42% -1.03% 9.08%
16 – 17 -0.68% -1.03% -0.33% 10.74%
17 – 18 1.68% 4.74% 0.83% -1.90%
Avg. -0.95% -1.65% 0.83% 5.29%

 

Use above data to predict the cost of living increase in 2019.  Plan your expenditure wisely.

 


 

References

1. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject
Data extracted on: February 1, 2019 (5:25:56 PM)
Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
Databases, Tables & Calculators by Subject
CPI-All Urban Consumers (Current Series)
Data extracted on: February 1, 2019
All items in U.S. city average, all urban consumers, not seasonally adjusted

3. The Federal Reserve System
Federal Open Market Committee
2019 FOMC Meetings January 29-30
FOMC Meeting Statement

4. The Federal Reserve System
Federal Open Market Committee
2019 FOMC Meetings January 29-30
Transcript of Chairman Powell’s Press Conference January 30, 2019

5. U.S. Energy Information Administration
Short-Term Energy Outlook
Release Date: January 15, 2019
Crude Oil Prices

6. National Association of Realtors
Pending Home Sales January 30, 2019

7. Federal Housing Finance Agency
U.S. House Price Index Report – November 2018

8. Apartment List
February 2019 Apartment List National Rent Report

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